anthonyhowelljournal

Very pleased indeed that The Fortnightly Review is up and running again. And here is the latest excerpt from the Runiad.

Enjoy the latest issue of the Fortnightly!

Meanwhile, you can read the entirety of the Runiad as a work in progress at the Heyzine link here. This has now hit 1400 views! A big thank you to all my readers. So encouraging! And here is more from Book 12:

…………“But was he shot?” asked a grandson,

Anxious for some bloodshed. “No; the old gun burst and hurt

My hands, but not a mite of harm was done to Joe. I don’t think

I could tell all that happened for a spell, being dazed and all

x

By surprise – and by joy at what I had not done – and finding us

Alive; but I was pert as a wren by the time Mother came home

And Joe was at the table eating every mortal thing.”

And nowadays you might refer to this as a black swan event,

For had that old musket not exploded, none of them would have been there

To hear Grandma’s story, for their grandpa would be lying dead

By the kitchen door, and life would have wheeled away, taken

x

A different turn, just as another, darker swan turns my writing  

Upside down, whirls me in its waterspout, in quantum entanglement

With that event that got me swamped by its own far from likely

Statistics. Note the disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict,

And rare events quite beyond the realm of normal expectations

In history, science, finance, and technology. The black swan

Alerts us to the non-computability of the likelihood of consequential

x

Rare events using scientific methods (owing to the nature

Of how few and far between they are). There are these psychological biases

That blind us all to uncertainty and to the substantial

Role of rare results, a role that queers prediction in historical affairs.

Analysing such a swan we delve into facts re the design, especially

The comparatively low tolerance point of the hull’s stability

In the event of its being tipped towards the water – due to the

xGreater length and weight of that show-off mast. Air conditioning

And extraction vents also invite access to water, if not shut.

Ok for the keel to be up – according to the manual – at the distance

To the shore that it was on the night. But this greatly enhanced

The chance of it capsizing. Also, when the keel is down it makes a noise –

Can’t be disturbing the sleep of the super-rich. Points to there being

A flaw though to the concept of a sailing boat/luxury hotel combo.

…..